G-7 e flores murchas de velhos impérios
«Las reuniones del G-7 tienen, cada vez más, olor a naftalina, a viejos escudos nobiliarios erosionados por el tiempo, a reunión grupal en la que sus miembros buscan reafirmarse en sus creencias, como si de una secta se tratara. Hasta hace, quizás, unos quince años, el G-7 reunía a los países más ricos y poderosos de la Tierra.
Era, o quería ser, una especie de gobierno mundial, cuyas decisiones marcaban la pauta del planeta. Ya no es así.
Atendiendo los últimos datos del FMI, de abril de 2015, en términos de paridad de poder de compra –que es, en última instancia, el dato relevante-
China es la primera economía mundial, India la tercera y Rusia la sexta.
El PIB de Brasil supera al del Reino Unido y el de México es mayor que los de de Italia y Canadá.
La única nota destacada del G-7 es su afán –estéril- de seguir creyendo que gobierna el mundo y su PRETÉNSION –más estéril aún- de pretender dominarlo con AMENAZAS. (...)
La historia reciente está llena de ejemplos demostrativos de la INUTILIDAD de los sistemas de SANCIONES, cuando no de terminar siendo contraproducentes.
(...) Los sistema de sanciones, aunque castigan en lo inmediato al país, a mediano y largo plazo se convierten en una bendición, pues sirven de estímulo para maximizar su potencial científico-técnico y convertirlo en autónomo.
A mayor autonomía, mayor capacidad de actuación independiente.
EEUU tiene vetada la venta de tecnologías punta a China, pese a lo cual China ya es la segunda POTENCIA del mundo en investigación, con casi todas las cartas de convertirse en la primera.
Por otra parte, el poder creciente e irresistible de las economías llamadas emergentes va convirtiendo las sanciones económicas atlantistas más en una incomodidad –una especie de china en el zapato- que en una amenaza real a la economía de países como Rusia. (...)
La magnitud de los FRACASOS acumulados por la versión político-militar del Dr. Jekill y Mr. Hyde, que son la UE/OTAN sería manifestación del envejecimiento y la artrosis de las clases dominantes, incluyendo las políticas.
La generación de grandes estadistas que alumbró la II Guerra Mundial ha sido sustituida por una clase POLÍTICA CADUCA, reaccionaria y militarista, que está depositando en la OTAN sus delirios por mantener una supremacía global perdida hace más de una década.
Dado que no pueden competir econonómicamente contra sus grandes rivales, China y Rusia, la opción escogida es la confrontación armada, cuyo escenario más inmediato es Ucrania.»
---Augusto Zamora R. (via http://entreasbrumasdamemoria.blogspot.pt/ 13/6/2015)
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Europeus contra europeus e no fim ganha a China
«A União Europeia está muito longe de ter qualquer estratégia face à China, que ultrapasse as relações comerciais e a competição interna para ser o melhor amigo de Pequim.
A última triste demonstração pública foi a corrida desordenada entre os grandes países europeus para serem fundadores do novo Banco Asiático de Investimento e Infra-estruturas de iniciativa chinesa.
O problema é que a China tem uma estratégia para a Europa que está a pôr em prática meticulosamente. (...)
A crise europeia ofereceu-lhe uma oportunidade de ouro que não vai desperdiçar. Enquanto olha, horrorizada, para a forma como os europeus se gerem a si próprios,
vai aproveitando a vulnerabilidade dos países do Sul e do Leste para criar as bases que lhe podem abrir caminho para a Europa mais rica em áreas que considera fundamentais, incluindo de alta tecnologia.
E se há exemplo acabado desta estratégia, ele está em Portugal.
O capital chinês, estatal ou privado, comprou algumas empresas estratégicas (por exemplo, a REN),
lançou-se nos seguros (com a compra da Fidelidade à CGD) e prepara-se agora para entrar na banca com a aquisição do Novo Banco.
Os chineses ganham porque pagam mais do que os outros e não porque trazem consigo melhor gestão e melhor tecnologia.
O que é mais preocupante é que ninguém discute sobre isto, como se fosse a coisa mais normal do mundo.
Não passa pela cabeça dos nossos governantes olhar para o que se está a passar no Mar da China do Sul (anexar ilhas dos vizi.
A generalidade dos analistas acha que, em tempo de “guerra”, não se limpam armas.» (Realce meu.)
Teresa de Sousa
Soros Sees New World Order Coming; War With China
(-Mark Melin, May 27, 2015 )
The U.S. could be poised for a third world war with China and one key to avoiding it could be found in currency accommodation, George Soros said in a recent speech to the Bretton Woods Committee in Washington D.C.
Addressing an issue closely watched by certain hedge fund insiders, Soros bench-marked the declining U.S. role in the world, the rise of China's currency as competitive to the U.S. dollar and the potential inclusion of the renminbi (RMB) in the International Monetary Fund’s Special Drawing Rights (SDR) currency basket, a topic ValueWalk has been following.
As China's economy transitions, Soros says watch carefully for a conflict trigger point
As China’s economy transitions, this could trigger a global military conflict as might other issues in the region, Soros observed. “If the transition runs into roadblocks, then there is a chance, or likelihood in fact, the leadership would foster some external conflict to keep the country united and maintain itself in power,” Soros said. “If there is a military conflict between China and an alley of the U.S., like Japan, it is not an exaggeration to say we could be on the threshold of a third world war. It could spread to the Middle East, then Europe and Africa.”
Unfortunately, in the days since Soros made his famous remarks, tension with China has reached a boiling point. As we noted yesterday, China has released a new white paper which threatens military action unless the U.S. stops its current actions in the South China Sea.
Specifically, the paper states:
A holistic approach will be taken to balance war preparation and war prevention, rights protection and stability maintenance, deterrence and warfighting, and operations in wartime and employment of military forces in peacetime. They will lay stress on farsighted planning and management to create a favorable posture, comprehensively manage crises, and resolutely deter and win wars.
Speaking to an elite organization known for setting global currency standards to FAVOR the U.S. as the world reserve currency of choice, Soros noted how it might be currency accommodation with China, and bending the rules, that might avoid the next world war. “International cooperation is in decline, and instead of a global order we have GLOBAL DISORDER,” in both relationships between sovereign nations and in the world of finance. “How the issue is decided will have a considerable impact… on the world order.”
“China has begun to build a rival set of institutions,” he said, noting that “there is an opportunity to build a binding connection between the two systems.” In doing so one must recognize that “the controlling shareholders are not going to abandon their control.”
Soros noted the SDR system is coming up for their five year review, as reported in ValueWalk, and there is a possibility to include the China’s renminbi. “Although it is not fully qualified, the qualifications are generally more flexible than believed,” Soros said. “The US would be making a major concession by allowing the remumnbi to make a step forward to become a potential rival of the dollar,” touching on an inside topic, the loss of the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency of choice, that being closely watched in certain circles.
Tough negotiations ahead
But getting to the point where China would be allowed to play among the dominate world leaders would involve difficult decisions on both sides of the Pacific. “They would have to make concessions, and there are several things wrong with the Chinese system,” Soros opined. “Chinese leadership does not abide by the rule of law, there is no independent Judiciary, multinational (corporations) are very often mistreated and replaced by domestic favorites. There are other problem areas such as CYBER-WARFARE. These are áreas where China would have to make concessions, which would involve very tough negotiations.”
Not engaging China could be a mistake of historic proportion, he said. “It is in the interest of both parties to find accommodation because the alternative is so unpleasant. There has been a breakthrough in climate policy. There needs to be a similar breakthrough in economic policy. If not, China will align itself with Rus
george-soros:
ou USA/ U.E. / oligarquias financeiras e industriais ... partilham poder mundial
(recursos, moeda internacional, organizações mundiais, políticas, economia e ambiente)
com a CHINA ou haverá (+) GUERRA !
...
Not engaging China could be a mistake of historic proportion, he said. “It is in the interest of both parties to find accommodation because the alternative is so unpleasant.
There has been a breakthrough in climate policy.
There needs to be a similar breakthrough in economic policy.
If not, China will align itself with Russia, and then a third war will become real.”
The third world war could already be taking shape in Europe, where “you already has an indirect war between Russia and the west, yet no one realizes this.” Russian military spending is now approaching 10 percent of its GDP, and China has made a similar commitment to spending on armaments, he observed.
History of U.S. dominance, according to Soros, started with the collapse of the Soviet Union, ended at derivatives crash of 2008
For history buffs, Soros bench-marked the brief rise and fall of U.S. world dominance. The supporter of a generally liberal political agenda, he pointed to the fall of communism as the moment in history where the U.S. had the world stage on its own and “had an opportunity to become the ‘guardian of world peace’ but squandered that opportunity because there was no political consensus in the US on a vision.”
On the political side, the battle with communism was won, but it was the financial side of world affairs that marked the downfall of the U.S., Soros said. After communism’s defeat, “there was a consensus in market fundamentalism and efficient market theory, but the system was inherently unstable,” which brought us to the key moment in history. “The financial crisis of 2008 led to the system’s collapse,” Soros declared. “The 2008 crash was a watershed moment because it marked the end of U.S. supremacy.”
Some might argue that free market system was not at work leading up to 2008, as many inside the Wall Street financial system partly responsible for the crash believed (correctly) that their criminal acts would not be punished, and thus a completely free market system with equal enforcement of the law was not in place, and this led to the 2008 financial crisis. Soros did not address the topic of equal law enforcement and a lack of deterrence leading up to 2008, but rather looked at the 2008 financial crisis as the historical benchmark. “2008 was also responsible for the euro crisis, and this transformed the European Union from a voluntary association of equals to something radically different, to creditors and debtors," he said, noting that "the crash of 2008 had a significant impact around the world except in China, because the banking system was isolated and state owned.”
After the 2008 collapse, the U.S. was being questioned and the nail in the coffin of world supremacy occurred. It was here history for the U.S. took a decided negative turn, Soros says, as U.S. President George W. Bush’s attack on Iraq “on false pretenses, I must add,” was the point at which the U.S. lost the mantle of global world leader. The U.S. had become sole ruler of world leadership after the collapse of the Soviet Union’s communistic system and in just one short decade lost this title. "This was almost exactly same period of time as Hitler’s” reign in power, less than ten years, Soros noted.
Now the world has broken up into rival camps both financially and politically, he noted, wondering how a catastrophic war will be avoided. “The big question is will they be able to keep the rivalry in bounds.”
--------Listen to the full speech here.
http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/05/george-soros-china-war/?utm_source=talkmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=pubexchange_module
Will The IMF And Yuan(China) Destroy The Dollar(USA) This October?
(--Rodney Johnson of Economy & Markets , June 10, 2015 10:28 AM EDT
http://www.talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/will-the-imf-and-yuan-destroy-the-dollar-this-october?post=66615 )
My inbox is filling up — again — with people asking about the collapse of the U.S. dollar in October.
In that fateful month, the IMF will vote on including the Chinese yuan in the basket of currencies that make up its Special Drawing Rights (SDRs).
It will most likely earn that spot, and in my opinion, it should.
For other member currencies, including the U.S. dollar, that will mean representing a smaller portion of the SDRs than they did before.
Now, many people are claiming that this is the point when the dollar will suffer a fatal wound, shrink from the world stage, lose its value, and drain people’s wealth in the process.
I don’t see it that way. It’s not a challenge to dollar supremacy. And it won’t cause the dollar to fall in value.
The IMF set up SDRs to act as a buffer for member nations when their currencies come under pressure.
If a country’s currency wanes, it saps the nation’s ability to buy goods in the global marketplace.
That can disrupt food supplies and trade in general.
To combat this, each member country holds a certain amount of SDRs that act as a reserve for times of need.
To be included in the SDRs, a currency must be used in foreign exchange, have sufficient transaction volume in derivative markets, be used as a reserve by foreign central banks, and have interest rates set by market forces.
The currencies in the SDR today — the U.S. dollar, the Japanese yen, the euro, and the British pound sterling — meet most of these criteria.
The Chinese currency does not, but that won’t matter.
While the yuan is used to buy goods from China, they aren’t widely represented in derivative markets or held by many central banks.
Chinese interest rates are set by the government, but so are interest rates around the world, so it’s hard to hold that one against them.
The Chinese yuan will leapfrog more commonly held and traded currencies like the Canadian loonie or Australian dollar
because the country has the second largest economy on the planet, is the world’s largest export nation, and has a trade surplus.
Their efforts to increase the yuan's presence in international trade and finance over the past few years justifies the currency's allocation in the SDRs.
They sell lots of stuff to lots of other people,
so it makes sense that other countries would have a smidge of Chinese money floating around if things got tough in their home currency.
But it’s only a smidge. The SDRs were created in 1969.
Since that time, the IMF has allocated roughly $280 billion worth of the units to member countries. Just $280 billion. Currently U.S. dollars represent around 40% of SDRs, so roughly $115 billion dollars are included in all the SDRs that exist today. That’s it.
Consider that over $5 trillion worth of currency transactions occur every single day.
Among all transactions, the U.S. dollar is party to more than 40% of them.
It’s also the most widely held currency in central bank reserves, representing over 60% of all declared holdings.
And let’s not forget the U.S. Treasury market is the deepest and most liquid bond market in the world.
Given all of this, it’s hard to see how adding a new name to the SDRs will change anything that happens in the real world.
It’s not a thorn in the dollar’s side. It’s not even a thorn.
But it does give us something to talk about for a while. Just like July 2014, when many claimed FATCA would threaten the U.S. dollar, October 2015 will be another drop dead date when the dollar will simply refuse to bow to the final curtain.
So hang on to your greenbacks.
They’re still the strongest currency in town, no matter how badly the Fed or U.S. government treats them.
And it’s going to stay that way for some time.
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